New Mexico is next at 1.8 points followed by Michigan and Pennsylvania (2.0 points), Iowa (2.2 points), Missouri and Colorado (2.4 points), Wisconsin (2.5 points), Virginia (2.9 points), and Oregon (3.0 points).Ohio’s consistency in echoing the electorate’s preferences across the decades has been quite remarkable at just 2.2 points across the 29 cycles since 1900.New Mexico is a close second at 2.3 points (in its 26 presidential elections since 1912) followed by Delaware (3.2), Missouri (3.3), Illinois (3.4), California, New Jersey, and Oregon (3.6), Colorado (3.7) and Washington (3.9).Since 1900, the statewide average deviation from the victorious candidate’s vote has been nearly four times that of Ohio at 8.4 points.Mostly Southern states populate the other end of the spectrum – not surprising given the region’s near uniform vote for Democratic candidates even in the face of changing national political winds for several decades during the period under analysis.Mississippi owns the greatest spread vis-à-vis the nationwide vote since 1900 at 26.5 points followed by South Carolina (24.7), Alabama (20.0), Georgia (18.2), Louisiana (18.1), Texas (14.5), Arkansas (12.6), Vermont (11.9), Florida (11.3), and Utah (10.3).However, only three of these states – Alabama, Mississippi, and Utah – have also skewed furthest from the national vote since the passage of the Civil Rights Act in 1964: Utah (16.3 points), Idaho (13.9), Alabama (13.3), Wyoming (12.4), Nebraska (12.4), Mississippi (11.5), Rhode Island (10.7), Massachusetts (10.5), Oklahoma (10.0), and Kansas (8.9).Since 1980, western and plains states dominate the bottom of the list: Utah (18.8 points), Idaho (15.6), Wyoming (14.8), Nebraska (12.8), Oklahoma (11.7), Rhode Island (10.5), Alaska (10.3), Massachusetts (9.9), North Dakota (9.7), and Hawaii (9.7).Overall, Ohio’s vote for the winning nominee has deviated from the national vote by less than a single point in eight of the 29 cycles since the 20th Century: in 1900 (0.7 points), 1908 (0.6), 1912 (0.8), 1948 (0.1), 1980 (0.7), 1984 (0.1), 2004 (0.1), and 2012 (0.4).Only one state fares better than Ohio by this measure with New Mexico doing so in 11 of 26 cycles: in 1912 (0.4 points), 1928 (0.8), 1944 (0.1), 1952 (0.2), 1956 (0.4), 1960 (0.4), 1972 (0.3), 1984 (0.9), 1996 (0.0), 2000 (0.0), and 2004 (0.9). Still, by being neutral, it doesn't get to have a feel-good "go do something" ending... which is needed to keep any political documentary from becoming a downer. A well done documentary about the electoral process, specifically in Ohio. ""Man lives freely only by his readiness to die, if need be, at the hands of his brother, never by killing him. Logged in users can submit quotes. The film's triple thesis is that elections are run badly, Democrats are often clueless and Republicans are clever. ""Some have more than one example to look up to. Today, it seems we are collectively reverting to its ugliness, but maybe also to its wonder. By Dr. Eric Ostermeier June 10, 2015. Pope John Paul II quote: As the family goes, so goes the nation and so goes the whole world in which we live. Pope John Paul II As the family goes, so goes the nation and so goes the whole world in which we live. Sidney Poitier’s 7 Most Memorable Performances And North Carolina and Nevada will continue to draw increased attention as demographic changes drive competitiveness in those states.But there is one state that has consistently mimicked the pulse of the national electorate more than any other during the 20th and 21st Centuries – Ohio.It is, of course, no secret that Ohio is one of a handful of battleground states that will likely determine which party wins the White House next year.And even though Election Day is 17 months away with perhaps at least a year before both nominees will be determined, in the end, the Buckeye State is the best bet to gauge the outcome of the national presidential popular vote.To be sure, Ohio has been the most accurate political thermometer across the 50 states when used to take the temperature of the national electorate over the decades.During the 112 years of presidential elections since the turn of the 20th Century through 2012, the Buckeye State’s vote for the winning candidate has deviated less than four points from the national popular vote in an astounding 26 of 29 cycles and by less than two points in 17 of these.For example, in 2012, Barack Obama received 50.6 percent of the vote in Ohio, or 0.4 points shy of his 51.0 percent nationwide.
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